In the film, the forecasts for the future include: the ultra-flat digital screen, the portable TVs used by astronauts, the videophone paid with a multi-use credit card—we're in '68, and the credit card was still a privilege of very few—the common use of the microwave oven—already invented, but not yet widespread—used to heat the astronauts' precooked food, a kind of multicolored puree that hints at the concept of fast food; voice recognition by a machine, a supercomputer capable not only of sensory activities, such as sight, hearing, and voice, but even of intellectual activities at the highest degree.
The sophisticated computer in the film, Hal 9000, defying the three laws of robotics, goes haywire and becomes a murderer and mutineer; perhaps due to a programming error by its creators, or due to the excessus mentis of an unrelenting logic that excludes falsehood, namely that the crew was not supposed to know the truth about the monolith. Yet, beneath its enormous "neo-cortex," Hal hides childhood memories and very human feelings: as the astronaut excludes the circuits governing its more advanced and sophisticated functions, fear emerges along with a nursery rhyme that gradually fades into indistinction, returning to a pre-verbal dimension. Hal's regression is both a return to individual childhood and to the dawn of humanity, because both our personal ontogenetic history and the phylogenetic history of the species are imprinted in our brain and nervous system.
Sometimes one gets the distinct feeling that this technological program was broadly already written. It seems that the great Time Machine of that immense clock of life on Earth only creates all the conditions at a certain point—not before—so that some geniuses can overcome social, mental, etc., constraints and break the centuries-old beliefs of a nation or of humanity as a whole.
But then is there a predetermined cosmic program, and man is its executor? If this kinetic-mercurial acceleration of support technologies were preparatory to something grander: the transfer of all earthly knowledge to electronic brains capable of immense databases of music, arts, culture, genetic codes. All encapsulated in a few silver discs, like cosmic memories ready to be boarded on space Arks that one day will carry our descendants to planets akin to our own.
The human brain is composed of approximately 10^12 neurons, and each neuron makes on average 10^3 connections (synapses) with other neurons, totaling 10^15 synapses. In an artificial neural network, a synapse can effectively be simulated with a real number (floating point) representable in 4 bytes of memory. Consequently, the amount of memory required to simulate 10^15 synapses is 4*10^15 bytes (4 million gigabytes). Let's say that to simulate the entire human brain requires 8 million gigabytes, including the memory needed to store the output values of the neurons and other internal brain states.
Over the last 20 years, the capacity of RAM in computers has grown exponentially, roughly tenfold every 4 years. The chart shown in Figure 1 illustrates the typical memory configurations installed in personal computers since 1980.
For example, from the equation, it can be deduced that in 1990, a personal computer typically had 1 Mbyte of RAM. By 1998, a typical configuration included about 100 Mbytes of RAM, and so on.
By reversing the relationship, it is possible to predict the year when a certain amount of memory will be available (as long as the growth follows the same pattern recorded in recent years):
year = 1966 + 4 log10 (bytes).
Now, to find out the year when a computer will have 8 million gigabytes of RAM (8*10^15 bytes), we simply need to substitute that number into the previous equation and calculate the result. The answer obtained is the year 2029.