The potential, although not certain and yet to be verified, cessation of the Berlusconi era has prompted me to write a concise essay dedicated to the possible political developments of the coming decade, evaluating which potential leaderships might emerge on the horizon of events and our own experience.
In not so distant times, I clarified in my notes how the possible leadership of the moderate faction could be taken on by a figure of undeniable prominence like Marina Berlusconi, heir to her father not only under the decisive economic aspect but also, and above all - given the numerous interviews and frequent public interventions - under the spiritual aspect and the related political strategy. On this matter, the judgment cannot help but remain suspended, awaiting the unfolding of the bare facts.
On the field, there seem to be two leaders most ready to guide the moderate forces: in a traditional sense, and in continuity with Berlusconi’s thought and actions, the figure of Angelino Alfano, current Secretary of the PDL and former Minister of Justice, certainly stands out, noted for the frankness of his anti-mafia fight and for his ability to synthesize the opposing interests of the judiciary and civil society during the difficult years he headed Via Arenula.
The second - even more significant and incisive - is instead linked to the figure of Matteo Renzi, a young (b. 1975) Mayor of Florence leading a faction hastily defined by the establishment as the "rottamatori” (demolishers); for several months, advocate of a discontinuity in left-wing politics aimed at intercepting both the moderate voters disillusioned by recent center-right policies and the youthful population not identifying with Berlusconi or his historical left-wing counterparts, be they D'Alema, Bersani, Vendola and, partially, Di Pietro.
What is more relevant, Renzi is the fresh author of a programmatic manifesto that is nourished by his life and experience, which merits stopping to consider so as not to miss, as has happened in the past, the Zeitgeist.
Already co-author, along with Lapo Pistelli, of the book "Ma le giubbe rosse non uccisero Aldo Moro: la politica spiegata a mio fratello" ('99), Renzi is part of a generation that emerged in political engagement during the years of the presumed rebirth following the "Clean Hands" investigation, and suffered in the subsequent years the failure of center-left governments led by Romano Prodi, Massimo d'Alema, and Giuliano Amato, a precursor to the long Berlusconi season definitively started in the spring of 2001.
The experience of harsh national defeats, combined with numerous victories of the left-wing faction in the local elections of the Region where he hails from, represents the precondition for the critical analysis of prevailing policies and the strategies through which the PD defined its policies and leadership. Policies successful at a local level, yet failing nationally.
The proposals advocated by Renzi, which I briefly recall as already well-known to all readers who followed the recent "Leopolda" convention, can be summed up around a few, but distinct, key concepts: greater interplay between Party and civil society; increased individual participation in party life; transparency in the selection of intermediate cadres and leaders; defining leadership as representing common demands of all voters, and not as autocratic control of the party apparatus; promoting the vital forces of society in public administration.
In essence, there seems to be a return to '93, and to the season of renewal that young Renzi saw emerging from the tireless work of referendum committees, which led, among other things, to the renewal of local electoral systems: a precursor, if one thinks about it, of local victories of a center-left more at ease in solving concrete problems than in creating political myths suitable for the contemporary era.
Not to be concealed, in this respect, are the numerous criticisms raised regarding this program and Renzi himself.
For some, they would be mere slogans lacking actual content, and unsuitable for sparking the renewal the Country needs; for others, they would be outdated concepts recalling the eventually failed model of the Anglo-Saxon big Society proposed by Blair in the late '90s, which ultimately resolved, when put to the test, in a privatization of public affairs, left to the good will of individuals and the qualities of politicians implementing various reforms; for yet others, Renzi and his program would merely be a sugar-coated variant of Berlusconi’s liberalism, alien to the very DNA of the left, where the welfare state is not seen as the solution but as a possible problem or better, an obstacle to the free expression of individual personalities, even in terms of reducing inequalities; others still consider Renzi and his young associates (such as Giorgio Gori who stands out among them) to be mere opportunists, children of a generation that grew up with Berlusconi or due to Berlusconi - symbolic is his participation in "La ruota della Fortuna", 1994 - and therefore unable to expunge Berlusconism - or anti-Berlusconism, from the organizing categories of political thought; others again have suggested striking parallels between Renzi’s claims and the rise of Craxi to lead the PSI in '76.
These are judgments I do not intend to delve into, leaving them to the free appreciation of the readers. However, I believe they do not capture the entirety of the phenomenon, reflecting a form of misoneism typical of a certain left, and more generally, of the most typical Italian culture, cynical, if not disillusioned.
The objective aspects of the Renzi affair, the only ones on which to base a rational judgment, concern his ability to challenge himself, the courage and clarity with which, at thirty-five, he has been able to criticize a now twenty-year-old leadership, incapable of positioning itself as a credible governing force due to excess divisions and lack of a common vision, present instead in the opposing camp, regardless of its flaws; the almost Pascal-like or Lapirian gamble on the country's future and the ability of a rebirth where even the younger generations can bear responsibilities; the understanding, a child of the best Christian Democracy tradition, that the only way to pursue reformist politics in Italy is to converge towards a moderate center serving as the balance point between the liberalist impulses of the right and the aspiration of the popular classes to obtain positional rents disguised as a Welfare State.
This represents, however they are judged, clear and specific profiles.
Among Renzi’s merits is undoubtedly the quality of not hiding, and clearly stating his objectives, perhaps allowing one to foresee his political trajectory in the coming years; a trajectory that will certainly intercept the course of the moderate electorate, whether stemming from left-wing experiences or from center-right experiences, culminating in a synthesis of opposites, namely achieving the objectives of the best Berlusconism through the values of the center-left and the communication techniques of the new century.
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