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Rating: What follows is not intended to be a review, but a summary of the book in order to contribute to the dissemination of its content which, like science fiction, offers possible scenarios for the future (or present?) of humanity.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is an easy-to-read book. Schwab employed numerous collaborators for the writing of the text and just as many experts to interview for the data in the final appendices regarding 23 inflection points related to specific technological aspects that will concern all of humanity.
Published in 2015, it outlines probabilities for decisive changes over the course of these ten years, up to 2025.
Very briefly; the first revolution began with the advent of steam engines, the second with the introduction of the use of electric energy, and the third with automation and digital.
Logically, the fourth should be a continuation of the third, however, there are three aspects for which, according to Schwab, it distinctively stands out: speed (exponential and no longer linear evolution), breadth and depth (bringing significant changes in business, society, and the individual, not just modifying how "things" are done but also "who" we are), systemic impact (aimed at changing entire systems, among nations, companies, industry, and society).
Another fundamental aspect is the fusion of different technologies and the interaction between the physical, digital, and biological domains.
However, Schwab outlines two main concerns; the inadequacy of levels of understanding and adaptation of economic, social, and political systems, and the lack of an essential narrative if we want to empower a heterogeneous group of individuals and communities and avoid a popular backlash against the fundamental changes underway.
One thing, however, is very clear, says Schwab, the countries or regions that manage to establish the best international standards for the future concerning key areas and the new digital economy (5G, commercial drones, the Internet of Things, digital health, etc.) will reap great benefits.
The book continues with an interesting analysis of the trends that are growing the revolution and the possible impacts on the economy and thus on work, business, nations, societies, and individuals, concluding with an appendix that we will now see in detail:
The way forward (profound changes):
1 – Implantable technologies:
Inflection point: the first implantable and commercially available cell phone.
By 2025: 82% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Smart tattoos and other exclusive chips could aid in identification and location. Implanted devices, in some way, will also help to communicate thoughts normally expressed in verbal form through an internal smartphone and, possibly, unexpressed thoughts or moods by reading brain waves and other signals.
2 – Our digital presence:
Inflection point: 80% of people digitally present on the internet.
By 2025: 84% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
In an increasingly connected world, digital life is intimately linking with the physical person, leading to presenting oneself online as one does in real life.
If the three most popular sites were a nation, they would have a billion more inhabitants than China.
3 – Vision as the new interface:
Inflection point: 10% of reading glasses connected to the internet.
By 2025: 86% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Smart devices that can bring eyes and vision to be the connection with the internet and other connected devices.
4 – Wearable technology:
Inflection point: 10% of the population with connected clothes.
By 2025: 91% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
From smartwatches to chips embedded in clothes.
5 – Ubiquitous computing:
Inflection point: 90% of the population connected to the internet.
By 2025: 79% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
The race to make internet access possible is in full swing. See for example Facebook's Internet.org project.
6 – A supercomputer in your pocket:
Inflection point: 90% of the population with smartphones.
By 2025: 81% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
7 – Data storage for all
Inflection point: 90% of people with access to unlimited and free storage.
By 2025: 91% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
8 – The internet of things and for things.
Inflection point: 1 trillion sensors connected to the internet.
By 2025: 89% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Every physical product (including animals) could be connected to a ubiquitous communication infrastructure and sensors will allow people to perceive their own environment integrally.
9 – The connected home.
Inflection point: more than 50% of internet traffic used at home by devices (excluding use for entertainment or communication).
By 2025: 70% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
10 – Smart cities.
Inflection point: the first city with more than 50,000 inhabitants, without traffic lights.
By 2025: 64% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Solutions for parking, waste collection, lighting, logistics, traffic, and material flows.
11 – Big data and decisions.
Inflection point: the first government to replace the census with big data sources.
By 2025: 83% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Today there is more data about communities than ever in history, the ability to understand and manage it is constantly improving, governments could use large volumes of data
to automate their programs and find new ways to serve citizens and clients.
12 – Driverless cars.
Inflection point: driverless cars will reach 10% of all the cars on the road in the USA.
By 2025: 79% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
The internet of things will allow each car to learn from the experience of all other cars, potentially ensuring greater safety and efficiency.
13 – Artificial intelligence and decision-making.
Inflection point: the first AI machine to join a board of directors.
By 2025: 45% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
AI can learn from past situations to present suggestions and automate future processes of complex decisions.
14 - Artificial intelligence and administrative functions.
Inflection point: 30% of corporate audits conducted by AI.
By 2025: 75% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Good for matching standards and automating processes, it is likely to replace various functions currently attributed to people. According to a study, it is expected that 47% of jobs in the United States are highly susceptible to being computerized in the next 10-20 years.
15 – Robotics and services.
Inflection point: the first robot pharmacist in the United States.
By 2025: 86% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
16 – Bitcoin and blockchain.
Inflection point: 10% of world GDP stored via blockchain technology.
By 2025: 58% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
17 – The sharing economy.
Inflection point: more trips with shared cars than with one's own vehicles globally.
By 2025: 67% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
A particular notion of ownership is reflected in the following questions:
the world’s biggest retailer does not own a single store, the largest provider of rooms does not own a single hotel, the biggest transport provider does not own a single car.
18 – Governments and the blockchain:
Inflection point: the first tax collection through blockchain.
By 2025: 73% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
Blockchain offers opportunities and challenges to governments, it is not regulated by a central bank, but can create the opportunity for new taxation mechanisms.
19 – 3D printing and manufacturing.
Inflection point: production of the first 3D-printed vehicle.
By 2025: 84% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
20 – 3D printing and healthcare.
Inflection point: the first 3D-printed liver transplant.
By 2025: 76% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
21 – 3D printing and consumer products.
Inflection point: 5% of consumer products printed in 3D.
By 2025: 81% of respondents believe this inflection point will occur.
22 – Designed beings.
Inflection point: the birth of the first human whose genome has been directly and deliberately edited.
Sequencing costs have dramatically decreased, and now with the CRISPR/9Cas method, there has been a notable increase in efficacy and efficiency.
23 – Neurotechnologies
The first human with fully artificial memory implanted in the brain.
For each aspect of this great change, the author highlights various positive points, among which a greater efficiency of production systems stands out, as well as a benefit to health management, contrasted by strong insecurity regarding data privacy, a profound change in social relationships, and the loss of several jobs.
In conclusion: is this the world we dream of or that they dream for us?
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